2006. Psychology and International Relations Theory | Annual Review of He dubbed these people superforecasters. Optimism and. Expert Political Judgment : How Good Is It? How Can We Know Philip Tetlock | Psychology - University of Pennsylvania [24][25][26][27] Rather, humans prefer to believe that they have sacred values that provide firm foundations for their moral-political opinions. So Philip Tetlock reported in his 02005 book, Expert Political Judgement and in a January 02007 SALT talk. He was elected a Member of the American Philosophical Society in 2019. Chapter 5: Dances with Foes. "Hedgehogs" performed less well, especially on long-term forecasts within the domain of their expertise. In Behind the Science of Intelligence Analysis, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Changing your mind is a sign of moral weakness. I hate you!). Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press. Cognitive Biases and Organizational Correctives: Do Both Disease and Cure Depend on the Ideological Beholder? Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. There are two primary models, the cognitive model that treats behavior as implicit, and the behavioral model that treats . Arkes, H., &Tetlock, P.E. How Can We Know?,[2] Tetlock conducted a set of small scale forecasting tournaments between 1984 and 2003. The Good Judgment Project was first developed as an entry into a competition for accurately forecasting geopolitical events, which was being hosted by The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity.12Despite the impressive competition, The Good Judgment Project won the tournament. Through consultations and workshops, Tetlock and his colleagues have been working to improve decision-making by promoting the qualities necessary to accurately foresee the outcomes of certain decisions. This work suggests that there is an inverse relationship between fame and accuracy. This is the mindset of the scientist. Tetlock, P.E., Kristel, O., Elson, B., Green M., &Lerner, J. Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Dont Know by Adam Grant (2021) is a new addition to the growing body of mainstream books about mental blindspots, cognitive biases, and thinking errors. After publishing this study in 2005, he spent years attempting to uncover what sets these superforecasters apart.1Research into superforecasters was conducted by The Good Judgment Project, an initiative Tetlock founded with Barbara Mellers, a colleague from the University of Pennsylvania.2The research Tetlock and his team conducted demonstrated that the key attributes of a superforecaster are teamwork, thinking in terms of probabilities, drawing knowledge from a variety of sources, and willingness to own up to their mistakes and take a different approach.3, Forecasters who see illusory correlations and assume that moral and cognitive weakness run together will fail when we need them most., Philip Tetlock inSuperforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Superforecasters have been shown to be so impressive in their ability to forecast future outcomes that they have outperformed highly trained intelligence analysts who have access to classified information that the superforecasters do not.4In their 2015 book,Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner trace patterns in forecasting through history.
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